He's been getting some grief on the racing sites
http://www.dailygazette.com/news/2016/a ... umn/?dgzrg

The line is a tough thing to make. The 7 Lumps that have won at the meet so far have averaged an underlaid $16.94 win payoff and every one of them is a minimum 8/1 on Travis' morning line.

No knock on Travis - he's trying to figure where the public will lay it's money but the farmers and tourists are a sharp group and defy logic in a lot of races. Some people prefer to work the PPs before the line is out.

Throw out the morning line at Saratoga.

The announcer that grew up nearby caught the gig for laying odds. For good handicappers this is a "no never mind" but for Joe Blow and the farmers and tourists the twisted odds are problematical - nobody in town from Porky Pup, Kentucky wants to see chalk get home when it's 8/1 on the program that costs too much.

The ML has been off a few times--seems like more so than usual. But the ML rarely comes into play---I only use it as a "sanity check" to see if I missed something. For example, if I think a beast will be a big price and it has a 4-1 ML, I will look at to make sure I did not miss anything.

Even Donovan has had past difficulty with the morning line for Saratoga.

Too many unpredictable variables at Saratoga...tourists..favorites...shippers waiting in the weeds (for big scores) handicappers...weather

After Thursday's racing 12 winning Lumps have averaged a $14.01 win mutuel off a minimum 8/1 morning line. It makes me no never mind as a handicapper but the ML is out of whack from Day #1. One Lump Wednesday paid $4.90 to finish a P3 for me as a single off the 8/1 morning line (one scratch in the race). The nightcap was won by a $9.20 Lump (8/1 ML). I bet neither horse at the win window since both brought in P3s so the win mutuel meant nothing to me.

Last year the 33 winning Spa Lumps averaged a $19.59 win mutuel.

Does it matter? No, not really. You handicap a race, not some guessed-up odds from two days ago.

In fairness to Travis, he didn't know the track conditions when he made the line. Slop and off the turf completely changes things along with scratches.

I agree BL, just like I wrote in my last sentence. Lots of people 'cap the early PPs before the line comes out and NYRA doesn't even post a corrected ML after the scratches are announced like they did not so many years ago.